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时间数列又称动态数列,它把系统看成为一个暗盒,依赖于历史观测数据和它的数据模式将某种统计指标数值按时间先后顺序排列起来,据以研究其发展变化趋势和速度并预测未来,并可随着时间的推移通过不断补充新的数据来修正预测方程,提高预测精度,其特点是计算简便、收集资料容易、预测精度高,便于检验,利于推广。尘肺发病是一慢性病理变化过程,宜用长期趋势法预测。长期趋势预测分为直线趋势预测与非直
The time series, also known as dynamic sequence, considers the system as a cassette, relies on historical observation data and its data model to arrange certain statistical indicators in chronological order, in order to study the development trend and speed, and predict the future. , And through the continuous addition of new data to amend the prediction equation, improve the accuracy of the prediction, which is characterized by easy calculation, easy data collection, high prediction accuracy, easy to test, conducive to promotion. The incidence of pneumoconiosis is a chronic pathological process and should be predicted by the long-term trend method. Long-term trend forecast is divided into straight-line trend forecast and non-straight