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理论上,政府财政支出对经济增长具有促进作用,而经济增长与贸易开放程度有存在紧密联系。可以说,改革开放是我国经济腾飞的重要原因,也可以说,经济的快速发展又进一步推进的贸易开放。由此看来,政府财政支出也与贸易开发存在的重要关系。本文是基于VAR模型,利用我国1978-2011年的时间序列数据实证检验了贸易开放与政府财政支出规模的动态关系。结果表明,财政支出是贸易开放的格兰杰原因,短期内抑制贸易开放,而长期中有利于贸易开放。
In theory, government fiscal spending has a positive effect on economic growth, while there is a close relationship between economic growth and the degree of trade liberalization. It can be said that reform and opening up are the important reasons for our country’s economic growth. It can also be said that the rapid economic development has further promoted the opening up of trade. Seen in this light, the government fiscal expenditure also has an important relationship with trade development. This article is based on the VAR model and uses the time series data from 1978 to 2011 in our country to empirically test the dynamic relationship between the opening up of trade and the size of government fiscal expenditure. The results show that fiscal expenditure is the Granger cause of trade liberalization, the suppression of trade opening in the short term, and the opening up of trade in the long run.