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基于历史气象数据(1971—2000),利用CLIMEX软件对松材线虫Bursaphelenchus xylophilus在我国的潜在适生区进行了预测,结果显示:松材线虫在我国的适生范围广、适生程度高,全国除黑龙江、吉林省无适生区外,其余各省市区均有适生区域,其中约2/3的适生区为高度适生区,覆盖整个南方地区,分布北界达内蒙古通辽地区,西至西藏的日喀则地区;进一步结合英国气候变化研究中心提供的气候变暖情境下未来气候模拟数据TYNSC2.0,利用CLIMEX软件预测出未来30年内(2010-2039)松材线虫在我国的潜在适生区,结果发现同历史气候条件下相比,未来30年内松材线虫在我国的适生分布区将呈现范围增加、适生程度增加、向北扩散的趋势,其中分布北界将到达吉林省西部,分布西界则与历史气候条件下预测结果相差无几。
Based on the historical meteorological data (1971-2000), the potential adaptive area of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus to Bursaphelenchus xylophilus in China was predicted by CLIMEX software. The results showed that: Pine wood nematode in our country has a wide range of suitable habitat, Except for Heilongjiang and Jilin Province where there is no suitable area for living, all other provinces and municipalities have suitable areas, of which about 2/3 of the suitable areas are highly suitable areas covering the entire southern area with north boundary reaching Inner Mongolia Tongliao area and west To Shigatse region of Tibet; Combining the TYNSC2.0 future climate simulation data provided by the British Center for Climate Change Research with CLIMEX software to predict the potential of pine wood nematode in China in the next 30 years (2010-2039) Area. The results showed that compared with historical climates, the distribution of pine wood nematode in China in the next 30 years will show an increase in the range, increase the degree of fitness, to the north of the trend of distribution, in which the distribution of the northern boundary will reach the western Jilin Province , While the distribution of the western boundary is almost the same as the historical climate.