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次贷危机给美国房市和金融机构带来的损失是巨大的。据机构风险分析家克里斯-维伦预测,从现在到2009年7月之间,美国将有100家银行会倒闭,这些银行的总资产估计有8500亿美元。其中绝大多数是小银行,也有一部分大型银行。而截至目前为止,信贷危机造成美国银行系统瘫痪,由危机造成的坏债冲销已经达到5050亿美元左右,目前仍在增加。而美国房市前景已经恶化,房价仍在继续下跌,未来数个季度内,美联储将不再有加息的压力。另外,银行需要低利率来重新流通资金,置业者也将需要低利率。到明年这个时候,当通货膨胀已被视为昨日之问题,加之失业率持续上升,减息的鼓声可能会敲响。
The subprime mortgage crisis has brought huge losses to the U.S. housing market and financial institutions. According to institutional risk analyst Chris-Velen, between now and July 2009, 100 U.S. banks will collapse, with an estimated total capital of about 850 billion U.S. dollars. The vast majority are small banks and some large banks. So far, the credit crisis has paralyzed the banking system in the United States. The write-off of bad debts caused by the crisis has reached about 505 billion U.S. dollars and is still on the rise. The prospects for the US housing market have deteriorated, housing prices continue to fall, the next few quarters, the Fed will no longer have the pressure to raise interest rates. In addition, banks need low interest rates to re-circulate funds, home buyers will also need low interest rates. By this time next year, when inflation has been regarded as yesterday’s problem and the jobless rate continues to rise, the drumming of a rate cut may be sounded.