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研究气候变暖背景下寒害的演变特征可为气候变化应对策略的制定提供依据。该文利用广西77个气象站点1961-2008年资料,选择极端最低气温、日最低气温≤5℃累积日数、日最低气温≤5℃积寒、24h最大降温幅度、日降水量≥5mm日数构建寒害指数(HI)模型,分析了广西经济林果寒害频率、站次比和强度的年代际变化;并应用GIS推算了寒害强度的空间分布。研究表明:广西经济林果寒害频率、站次比和寒害强度20世纪60和70年代较重,90年代较轻;与气候变暖对应,48a来广西寒害总体呈减小趋势,但21世纪初(2001-2008年)寒害频率、站次比和寒害强度比90年代增加。广西经济林果商业种植区主要分布在寒害强度为0.24以下的苍梧、蒙山、来宾、都安、巴马、百色等县市以南的大部地区。
Studying the evolution characteristics of chilling hazard in the context of climate warming can provide the basis for the formulation of coping strategies for climate change. Based on the data from 1961-2008 in 77 meteorological stations in Guangxi, this paper selects the extreme minimum temperature, the daily minimum temperature ≤5 ℃, the daily minimum temperature ≤5 ℃, the maximum temperature decrease 24h, the daily precipitation≥5mm, Index (HI) model, the interdecadal variation of frequency, station frequency and intensity of economic cold injury in Guangxi was analyzed. The spatial distribution of drought damage intensity was calculated by GIS. The results showed that the frequency of cold damage, the station frequency and severity of cold injury in Guangxi were heavier in the 1960s and 1970s and lighter in the 1990s. Corresponding to the warming, the chilling injury in Guangxi generally showed a decreasing trend in the past 48 years. However, in the early 21st century 2001-2008) frequency of cold injury, station frequency and intensity of cold injury than the 90’s increase. Commercial planting areas of commercial forest in Guangxi are mainly distributed in most areas south of Cangwu, Mengshan, Laibin, Du’an, Bama and Baise cities where the intensity of cold damage is less than 0.24.