论文部分内容阅读
为有效预测和评价安全生产水平,建立一个量化、动态、可反馈的系统动力学(SD)安全生产水平预测与评价模型。通过辨析安全生产影响要素,绘制安全生产要素-系统-指数因果关系图。运用SD理论,构建安全生产水平预测和评价SD模型。在模型中确定3个状态变量、3个决策变量和4个辅助变量,并设置6条反馈回路。通过确定变量,并利用SD模型进行仿真模拟,可实现安全生产水平的定量、动态预测和评价;将SD模型用于安全生产水平预测和评价,可弥补现行定性、静态、链式评价方法的不足。
In order to effectively predict and evaluate the level of production safety, a quantitative, dynamic and feedback system modeling (SD) level of production safety forecast and evaluation is established. By analyzing the factors influencing production safety, draw the factor of production-system-index causality. Using SD theory to construct safety production level forecasting and evaluating SD model. Three state variables, three decision variables and four auxiliary variables are identified in the model and six feedback loops are set. By determining variables and using SD model for simulation, quantitative and dynamic prediction and evaluation of safety production level can be realized. Using SD model in safety production level prediction and evaluation can make up for the deficiency of current qualitative, static and chain evaluation methods .