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2011/12榨季,国内共生产食糖1151.75万t,较上榨季增加10.17%;全球食糖供给过剩和宏观经济衰退使国际糖价跌落至低位,国内糖价面临很大的下行压力。临储政策对中国糖价起到明显的支撑作用,大幅提高的糖料收购价格与种植优惠政策刺激了蔗农生产积极性,蔗农明显增收,南方主产区甘蔗种植面积增加7.93%。展望201213榨季,预计全球食糖市场将连续第2年处于供给过剩状态,未来国际糖价很难出现大幅反弹;而国内食糖产需仍存在较大缺口,进口糖数量仍有较大上升空间,对走私糖的控制力度很大程度上会影响国内食糖的供给;国内糖价在很大程度上将取决于国内食糖政策。
In the 2011/12 crop season, a total of 11,517,500 tons of sugar were produced in China, an increase of 10.17% over the previous crop. The global sugar supply surged and the macroeconomic downturn caused the international sugar price to drop to low levels. The domestic sugar price faced great downward pressure. The temporary storage policy played an obvious supporting role in the price of sugar in China. The substantially higher sugar purchase price and planting preferential policies stimulated the enthusiasm of sugarcane farmers. The sugarcane farmers’ income increased significantly, while the sugar cane acreage increased by 7.93% in the southern main producing areas. Looking forward to the 2012 13 crop season, it is estimated that the global sugar market will be in surplus for the second year in a row, and it is difficult for the international sugar price to rebound sharply in the future. However, there is still a big gap in domestic sugar production and demand and there is still a large increase in the import sugar Space, the control of smuggling sugar to a large extent will affect the supply of domestic sugar; domestic sugar prices will largely depend on the domestic sugar policy.