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“中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)”课题组基于2011年7月底国家统计局最新发布的中国宏观经济季度数据调整并估计CQMM,对2011年下半年和2012年中国宏观经济运行趋势展开预测。预测结果表明,2011年GDP将可能增长9.82%,2012年GDP增长率可能回落至8.91%。模型预测,2011年CPI预计将上涨5.4%,2012年仅可能回落至4.93%的水平。课题组对美国经济陷入二次衰退对中国经济可能产生的影响进行政策模拟。结果显示,中国的进出口将因此会受到较大冲击,但如果能适时适量地调整货币政策,可在一定程度上通过投资需求的扩张来减缓美国经济二次衰退对中国经济的冲击,保持经济增长8.24%的水平。与此同时,经济增长放缓将减少了GDP与潜在GDP的缺口,降低通胀压力。我国应正视国内外宏观经济环境的变化,使中国经济正从高速增长逐步转向次高速以至中速增长的阶段。在通胀压力减缓后,顺应这一发展态势的改变,着力推进体制变革,促进发展方式的转变和经济结构的调整,为未来更高阶段的经济发展寻求新的增长点。
“China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM) ” based on the quarterly data of China National Bureau of Statistics released the latest quarterly macroeconomic data by the end of July 2011 to adjust and estimate CQMM, predict the macroeconomic performance of China in the second half of 2011 and 2012 . The forecast shows that GDP will likely increase by 9.82% in 2011 and GDP growth in 2012 may decline to 8.91%. The model predicts CPI is expected to rise by 4.4% in 2011 and may only drop to 4.93% in 2012. The task force conducted a policy simulation on the possible impact of the U.S. recession on the Chinese economy after it was caught in a second recession. The results show that China’s import and export will therefore be greatly challenged. However, if the monetary policy can be appropriately adjusted in due course, the impact of the U.S. recession on the Chinese economy will be mitigated to a certain extent through the expansion of investment demand and the economy will be maintained An increase of 8.24%. In the meantime, a slowdown in economic growth will reduce the gap between GDP and potential GDP and reduce inflationary pressures. China should face up to the changes in the macroeconomic environment at home and abroad so that China’s economy will gradually shift from high-speed growth to the second-high-speed growth and medium-speed growth. Following the slowdown of inflationary pressures, we should follow the changes in this development trend, strive to promote institutional changes, promote the transformation of the mode of development and readjust the economic structure, and seek new growth points for the economic development at a higher stage in the future.