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目的探讨应用多个模型线性组合进行职业病发病趋势预测的可行性。方法收集1984-2011年武汉市职业病诊断资料,分别利用Excel和SPSS软件对年发病数进行灰色模型和自回归移动求和平均模型建模拟合,将两模型得到的预测值加权组合形成最终预测值。结果组合模型较好地拟合了既往时间段的发病序列;2012年武汉市职业病发病数预测数为15。结论组合模型较单一预测模型的精度要高,能够较好地预测职业病的发病趋势。
Objective To explore the feasibility of using the linear combination of multiple models to predict the trend of occupational disease. Methods The diagnostic data of occupational diseases in Wuhan City from 1984 to 2011 were collected. The incidence and incidence of occupational diseases were collected by using Excel and SPSS software respectively. The gray prediction model and autoregressive moving average model were fitted and weighted together to form the final prediction value. Results The combinatorial model fitted well the sequence of the previous time period. The predicted number of occupational diseases in Wuhan in 2012 was 15. Conclusion The combined model is more accurate than the single prediction model and can predict the trend of occupational diseases better.