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为了探索小麦白粉病发生流行与气象条件的动态关系,选择小麦感病品种,在河北省典型麦田安装冠层温湿度监测仪进行观测试验,同时进行大气温湿度的对比观测,得到田间冠层和大气逐时温湿度与白粉病系统调查病情资料,通过分析小麦白粉病流行速度与冠层、大气温湿度及其日变化的关系,提出了“日界限温度累计时”概念,建立了冠层与大气两种尺度白粉病流行速度的温湿度气象等级指标,并建立了基于冠层与大气两种尺度短临温湿度及其日变化的白粉病流行速度预测模型。利用所建指标进行2009年、2010年回代检验,符合率分别为67%、84%,2012年实际测报,符合率为87%;所建立的预测模型综合预报准确率达88%。本文所建立的指标与模型可用于小麦白粉病发生流行的动态监测预警和评估,同时为小麦白粉病气象深入研究提供线索和开拓思路。
In order to explore the dynamic relationship between prevalence of wheat powdery mildew and meteorological conditions, wheat susceptible cultivars were selected to observe and test the canopy temperature and humidity in a typical wheat field in Hebei Province. At the same time, According to the epidemiological data of atmospheric temperature, hourly temperature, humidity and powdery mildew system, the concept of “daily limit temperature accumulation” was proposed by analyzing the relation between the prevalence of wheat powdery mildew and the canopy, atmospheric temperature, humidity and diurnal variation. Layer and atmosphere of powdery mildew prevalence rate of meteorological grade indicators, and established based on the canopy and atmosphere two short-term temperature and humidity and diurnal variation of powdery mildew prevalence prediction model. The built-in indicators were used for the 2009 and 2010 years, respectively, and the coincidence rates were 67% and 84% respectively. The actual measurement in 2012 was 87%. The accuracy of the integrated prediction model was 88%. The index and model established in this paper can be used for the dynamic monitoring, early warning and evaluation of the occurrence of wheat powdery mildew and provide the clues and ideas for the further study of wheat powdery mildew.