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综合国内外因素,中国经济仍将以周期波动的方式展开。根据以往的周期波动规律来看,2013年或将是进入新一轮上升周期的开始。世界经济的第一个长周期是从1780年开始,到1844年完成的。第二个长周期是从1844年开始,到1890年左右结束。从20世纪初到1933年是世界经济的第三个长周期。第四个长周期,我个人认为是从1933年或者罗斯福新政开始,到2012年或2013年结束。平均每五十、六十年左右为一个长周期。当然,每一轮长周期都有它的动力,新技术革命或者新制度革命。
Based on the domestic and international factors, the Chinese economy will continue to fluctuate in a cyclical manner. According to the law of the past cyclical fluctuations, 2013 or will be the beginning of a new round of rising period. The first long cycle of world economy began in 1780 and was completed in 1844. The second long cycle began in 1844 and ended in 1890. From the early 20th century to 1933 was the third long cycle of the world economy. The fourth long cycle, personally, I think, started in 1933 or the Roosevelt New Deal and ends in 2012 or 2013. On average every 50 or 60 years is a long cycle. Of course, every round of long cycle has its power, new technological revolution or new institutional revolution.