社会消费品零售总额反映一定时期内人民物质文化生活水平的提高情况,反映社会商品购买力的实现程度,以及零售市场的规模状况。本文运用指数平滑法对我国五个省市的社会消费品零售总额进行预测,发现各省市在社会消费品零售总额方面存在的差距,得到的2015-2020的预测值为政府制定相关政策提供参考。 The total retail sales of social consumer goods reflect the improvement of people’s material and cultural life in a certain period of time, reflecting the realization of the purchasing power of social goods and the scale of the retail market. This paper uses exponential smoothing to predict the total retail sales of social consumer goods in five provinces and municipalities in China and finds that there is a gap between the provinces and municipalities in the total retail sales of social consumer goods. The forecast value from 2015-2020 provides reference for the government to formulate relevant policies.