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在区域发展环境变化及发展格局转变情况下,文章引入地理集中度、不一致指数及不均衡指数等方法,对比分析2000—2015年长江三角洲人口、经济地理集中度及人口与经济不一致指数的时空格局演变趋势,并基于面板数据回归对人口与经济不一致指数的影响因素进行实证研究。结果表明,在经济分布向边缘区扩散的格局下,人口分布总体呈现向核心区集聚的态势,由此带来的人口与经济不一致指数变化主要表现为核心区的上升与边缘区的下降,且人口与经济空间布局的协调性有所提高。对不一致指数影响因素的定量分析表明,市场力量、政府政策及城市发展状况等都对人口与经济分布不一致性产生重要的影响。
Under the circumstance of the change of regional development environment and the change of development pattern, this paper introduces the methods of geographical concentration, inconsistent index and imbalance index to compare and analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of population, economic geography concentration and inconsistent index of population and economy in the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2015 Evolvement trend, and empirical research on the influencing factors of population-economic disagreement index based on panel data regression. The results show that under the pattern that economic distribution spreads to marginal zone, population distribution presents the trend of agglomeration to core area. The change of population-economic inconsistency index is mainly due to the rise of core area and the decrease of marginal area The coordination of population and economic spatial layout has been improved. Quantitative analysis of the influencing factors of the inconsistency index shows that market forces, government policies and urban development have a significant impact on the inconsistency of population and economic distribution.