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2016年,小概率事件纷纷落地,尤其英国脱欧公投和美国总统大选,投票前的广泛民调和最终结果都有点出乎意料。可见,群体行为或许比个体行为更容易情绪化,这种情绪化的决策会使结果被错误估计。也正是这种错误,给了我们潜在的交易机会。美元指数:先扬后抑美元是风向标,目前直接影响美元中短期表现的主要因素包括美联储的货币政策、特朗
In 2016, there were many small-probability incidents, in particular the Brexit and the U.S. presidential elections in Britain. The widespread polls and the final results before voting were somewhat unexpected. It can be seen that group behavior may be more emotional than individual behavior, and that such emotional decision can lead to erroneous estimates. It is also such a mistake, giving us potential trading opportunities. US dollar index: the first post-suppression dollar is the benchmark, the current direct impact on the dollar short-term performance of the main factors include the Fed’s monetary policy, Tran