稻瘟病是我市水稻上一种流行频率较高、危害严重的病害,在测报工作中历来占有较重要的地位。实践证明,连晚穗瘟防治工作的成败、经济效益的高低,很大程度上取决于测报的准确性,素为人们所重视。连晚穗瘟发生程度的预测,过去一般以菌源、气象预报和品种抗病性等进行定性分析,准确性较差。1985年开始,我们应用浙江省台州地区农科所1984年根据8月下旬至9月上旬空中孢子捕捉量和后期穗瘟相关性建立的幂函数曲线预测式 Y=0.4712x~(0.7216),SY·x±1.64进行预报,经5年应用结果表明,预测值和实测值完全符合,准确率高,在生产上有很 Rice blast is one of the most prevalent epidemic diseases in rice in our city, which has always occupied a more important position in the field of measuring and reporting. Practice has proved that even the night panicle blast control work success or failure, the level of economic benefits, largely depends on the accuracy of the newspaper, as people pay attention. Even late panicle blasting the degree of prediction, in the past generally based on bacteria, weather forecasting and disease resistance and other qualitative analysis, the accuracy is poor. Beginning in 1985, we used the power function curve Y = 0.4712x ~ (0.7216) predicted by the Agricultural Science Institute of Taizhou Prefecture in Zhejiang Province in 1984 according to the correlation between aerial spore catches and late frostbite in late August to early September. · X ± 1.64 forecast, after 5 years of application results show that the predicted value and the measured value in full compliance with high accuracy, in the production of a very