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一九九七年夏天,一家日本的主要报纸请我就二十世纪中发生的最重要的事谈谈自己的看法。我发现这是个很少遇到的引人深思的问题,毕竟在过去的百年当中发生了那么多重大的历史事件。欧洲的帝国,特别是在十九世纪中居于支配性地位的英、法帝国,终于没入了历史。我们亲历了两次世界大战,看到法西斯主义和纳粹主义的兴起和衰亡。二十世纪目睹了共产主义的崛起,以及它的没落(如在前苏联阵营)或大幅度的变革(如在中国)。我们也注意到,西方世界的经济支配地位已被一种新的经济格局所取代,在这一新的经济格局中,日本、东亚和东南亚有着更大的影响力。虽然东亚和东南
In the summer of 1997, a major Japanese newspaper asked me to share my views on the most important issue that took place in the twentieth century. I find this an intriguing issue rarely encountered, after all, in the centuries that have taken place so many major historical events. The empire of Europe, especially the British and French empires that dominates the nineteenth century, finally fell into history. We have witnessed two world wars and witnessed the rise and fall of fascism and Nazism. The twentieth century witnessed the rise of communism and its decline (as in the former Soviet bloc) or drastic changes (as in China). We also noticed that the economic dominance of the Western world has been replaced by a new economic pattern in which Japan, East Asia and Southeast Asia have a greater influence. Although East and Southeast