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明确水稻安全生产期及温光资源的变化规律,是提高温光资源利用率和实现水稻高产稳产的重要基础。本研究分析了江西不同生态区(赣南、赣中、赣北)15个气象站近30年(1984-2013)逐日日平均气温、日照时数等气象资料,参照水稻生产中常用的安全生产临界温度指标,研究了近30年来不同地区50%和80%保证率下双季稻安全生产期及温光资源的变化规律。结果表明,1999-2013年(前15年)各地安全生产期及温光资源较1984-1998年(后15年)发生明显变化,且地区间存在一定的差异。早稻覆膜育秧安全播种期平均提前了10d(气候变化倾向率-4.16d/10a,下同),早稻安全直播期提前了4d(-3.17d/10a),早稻安全移栽期提前了2d(-2.21d/10a)。晚稻安全齐穗期延迟趋势不明显(1.16d/10a),晚稻安全成熟期延迟了8d(3.56d/10a)。全年安全生产期天数在早稻覆膜育秧和直播条件下分别延长了18d(7.72d/10a)和11d(6.73d/10a)。安全生产期内温光资源总体呈温度明显升高、积温显著增加、日照时数无明显变化的特点。监测资料表明,近年来各地区实际生产日期作了相应的调整,但仍与安全生产日期存在较大偏差,因此,推算了近30年各站点80%保证率的安全生产日期,以就近指导各地稻作季节安排、种植方式选择及早晚稻品种搭配。最后,依据气候变化趋势,讨论了农艺措施的可能适应策略。
Clear rules of rice production safety and the change of temperature and light resources, is to improve the utilization of temperature and light resources and achieve high and stable yield of rice an important foundation. This study analyzed the meteorological data of daily average daily temperature and sunshine duration of 15 meteorological stations in different ecological zones (Gannan, Ganzhong and North Jiangxi) in recent 30 years (1984-2013) in Jiangxi Province. According to the commonly used safety measures in rice production Critical temperature, we studied the law of double cropping rice during the period of safety production and temperature and light under the guaranteed rates of 50% and 80% in different regions in recent 30 years. The results show that during the period from 1999 to 2013 (the first 15 years), the safe production period and the temperature and light resources of all places have changed obviously from 1984 to 1998 (the latter 15 years), and there are some differences among regions. Early sowing rice seedling safer planting an average of 10d ahead of schedule (climate change tendency -4.16d / 10a, the same below), safe early sowing early rice 4d (-3.17d / 10a), safe early transplanting rice early 2d -2.21d / 10a). The delayed heading of safe heading stage of late rice was not obvious (1.16d / 10a), the late maturity of late rice was delayed 8d (3.56d / 10a). The number of days of safe production in the whole year was prolonged by 18 days (7.72d / 10a) and 11 days (6.73d / 10a) under the conditions of seedling growing and direct seeding of early rice. During the safe production period, the temperature and light resources in the whole area showed a marked increase in temperature, a significant increase in accumulated temperature, and no significant change in the number of sunshine hours. Monitoring data show that in recent years, the actual production date in all regions has been adjusted accordingly, but there is still a big discrepancy with the date of safety production. Therefore, the safety production date of 80% guarantee rate for each site in the past 30 years has been calculated to guide the local Rice planting season, planting options and early and late rice varieties with. Finally, based on the trend of climate change, the possible adaptation strategies of agronomic measures are discussed.