本文结合国家制订五年计划的年度时限划分阶段，将广西１９５１～１９９０年四十年的水稻年平均产量数据划分为８个时段（每连续５年为一时段），求各时段数据的平均值作基础，应用ＧＭ（１，１）模型建立阶段水稻年平均产量灰色预测模型。经检验，所建模型精度为一级。最后应用模型预测了广西１９９１～２０１０年４个连续时段的阶段水稻年平均产量。 According to the division of annual time-frame of the five-year plan, the average annual output of rice from 1951 to 1990 in Guangxi is divided into eight periods (every five consecutive years), and the average of the data As a base, the gray prediction model of average annual yield of rice was established by using GM (1,1) model. After testing, the model accuracy of one. Finally, the model was applied to predict the average annual rice yield of four successive periods from 1991 to 2010 in Guangxi.