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结合DKRZOPYC模式在中国东北地区的模拟试验结果 ,利用随机天气模式WGEN对该地区未来水热条件的可能变化进行数值模拟 ,由此可以克服以基准气候下建立的线性统计关系 ,通过大尺度平均气候要素研究气候资源变化的不足。文中不仅给出了农业气候资源基本特征量的变化 ,如作物生长季、≥ 0℃活动积温、≥ 1 0℃有效积温和不同时间尺度的平均降水量等 ,而且详细分析了 2×CO2 气候情景下 ,该地区极端气候要素值的可能变化 ,如生长季内极端平均最高气温、冷害低温始日、≥ 3 0℃高温日、≥50mm暴雨日和日最大降水量等。文中还针对不同作物类型 ,以作物需水量和缺水量 ,模拟了未来气候条件下 ,该地区主要农作物春小麦、春玉米和一季稻水热条件匹配状况的可能变化。结果表明 ,未来增温有利于改善东北地区当前的热量条件 ,减轻低温冷害的危害 ;降水增加有利于改善干旱地区作物的供水条件 ,提高作物产量。但是由于降水的增加不足以补偿增温引起蒸发蒸腾的增强 ,东北地区主要作物生长发育期间水分普遍不足 ,在没有灌溉条件的地区 ,农业产量将受到影响。另外 ,平均气候变化以后 ,气候极端值的变化将更加剧烈 ,因此 ,异常天气灾害对农业的危害程度有可能增加。
Based on the simulation results of DKRZOPYC model in northeastern China, the random variation of hydrothermal conditions in the region can be numerically simulated by using random weather model WGEN, which can overcome the linear statistical relationship established in the baseline climate. Through the large-scale mean climate Elements to study the lack of changes in climate resources. The paper not only gives the basic characteristics of agricultural climate resources such as crop growth season, ≥ 0 ℃ active accumulated temperature, ≥ 10 ℃ effective accumulated temperature and average precipitation over different time scales, etc., and detailed analysis of 2 × CO2 climate scenarios Such as the extreme maximum temperature during the growing season, the onset of cold damage at low temperature, the high temperature day of ≥ 30 ℃, the maximum rainfall of ≥50mm rainstorm and so on. The paper also simulates the possible changes of water and heat condition matching conditions of spring wheat, spring maize and one-season rice under the climate conditions in future in different crop types and crop water requirement and water deficit. The results show that the future warming will help to improve the current heat conditions in northeast China and reduce the damage caused by chilling damage. Increasing precipitation will improve the water supply conditions of crops in arid areas and increase crop yields. However, since the increase of precipitation is not enough to compensate for the increase of evapotranspiration caused by warming, the water content of the main crop growth and development in northeast China is generally insufficient. In areas without irrigation, the agricultural output will be affected. In addition, changes in climate extremes will increase even more after the average climate change, so the damage caused by abnormal weather disasters to agriculture may increase.