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目的分析2007-2009年成都市腹泻症状监测数据和同期法定报告传染病中的肠道传染病监测数据的时间变化及相互关系,找出两者之间的变化规律,为肠道传染病预警提供更有效的方法。方法采用错位相关分析两数据源的时间错位相关关系,定量研究两数据源的时间先导性。结果法定报告肠道传染病发病率与腹泻症状患者报告率在3年监测同一时刻均具有相关关系,经过错位相关分析得到,2007年、2008年腹泻症状患者报告率和前移1周的肠道传染病发病率的相关系数最大,滞后时间在1周左右。对于其他感染性腹泻,腹泻症状监测报告率分别与2007年、2008年前移1周的其他感染性腹泻发病率的相关性最高,而对于菌痢,3年均表现为监测本周的两数据源时间分布最为相近。结论腹泻症状监测可以提前1周左右提示法定报告肠道传染病的发生,尤其对其他感染性腹泻和菌痢的预警作用比较明显,对该监测数据的预警分析能在一定程度上起到早期发现肠道传染病流行趋势的作用。
Objective To analyze the time variation and interrelationship between the monitoring data of diarrhea in Chengdu and the statutory reporting infectious diseases in 2007-2009 in Chengdu and to find out the changing rules between the two in order to provide early warning of intestinal infectious diseases More effective way. Methods The dislocation correlation analysis was used to analyze the relationship between time dislocation between two data sources and quantitatively study the time leading of the two data sources. Results The statutory report of the incidence of intestinal infectious disease and diarrhea symptoms reported rate at the same time monitoring at 3 years are related to the relationship between the dislocation-related analysis obtained in 2007 and 2008 diarrhea symptoms in patients with reported rates and 1 week before the intestinal The incidence of infectious diseases, the correlation coefficient of the largest, lag time in about 1 week. For other infectious diarrhea, diarrhea symptom monitoring and reporting rates were the highest incidence of other infectious diarrhea incidence in 2007 and 2008, respectively, a week earlier, while for the dysentery, 3 years were monitored for the two data this week The distribution of source time is the most similar. Conclusion The monitoring of diarrhea can prompt the statutory report about the occurrence of intestinal infectious diseases about 1 week in advance, especially for the early warning of other infectious diarrhea and bacillary dysentery. The early warning analysis of this monitoring data can play an important role in early detection Intestinal infectious disease epidemic trend.