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随着气候变暖和海平面上升导致的河口盐水入侵增强,上海这一地处长江河口区特大型城市的主要水源地供水安全面临严峻挑战。为此,海平面上升背景下上海市水源地供水安全预警研究迫在眉睫。本文在分析上海市水资源供需风险因子的基础上,研究上海市水源地供水安全预警系统及其功能结构,将上海市人均水资源量、供水保证率、万元GDP用水量、盐水入侵时上海市水源地不可取水天数作为上海市水源地供水安全的预警指标,利用熵权模糊物元法计算4个预警指标的权重,通过加权欧氏距离确定2020年、2030年和2050年上海市水源地供水安全的预警等级,并提出上海市水源地供水安全预警的对策、建议和措施,为相关部门科学分析和有效保障上海市的供水安全提供决策依据。
As the warming of the estuary and saltwater intrusion caused by the warming of the sea and the rise of the sea level, the water supply security of Shanghai, a major water source in the estuary of the Yangtze River estuary, faces severe challenges. For this reason, the study of the water supply safety precautions for water sources in Shanghai under the background of sea level rise is imminent. Based on the analysis of the water supply and demand risk factors in Shanghai, this paper studies the water supply water safety early warning system and its functional structure in Shanghai. The per capita water resources, the water supply guarantee rate, the water consumption per million yuan GDP, and the saltwater intrusion in Shanghai The number of unacceptable days in the city’s water source area serves as an early warning indicator for water supply in Shanghai’s water sources. The entropy weight fuzzy matter-element method is used to calculate the weights of the four early-warning indicators, and the water source areas in 2020, 2030, and 2050 are determined by the weighted Euclidean distance. The level of water supply safety warning, and put forward the countermeasures, suggestions and measures for the water supply water supply safety warning in Shanghai, provide decision-making basis for relevant departments to scientifically analyze and effectively guarantee Shanghai’s water supply security.