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温度、降水及高温热害等气候条件与水稻生产息息相关。论文基于2003—2011年湖北农户层面的2 610个样本数据及气象数据,在考察湖北地区水稻生长期高温热害时空变化特征的基础上,建立了水稻单产及其影响因素的分层模型,重点探讨了温度、降水、极端高温等气候因素对湖北水稻单产的影响,并检验了温度、降水对水稻单产的非线性影响。研究发现,湖北省高温热害呈现明显的时空变化特征。2003—2011年湖北省高温热害呈先降后增的变化趋势,伴随“V”型波动。空间上,高温热害在鄂中和鄂东地区比较严重,鄂西地区和江汉平原则相对更轻。另一方面,气候因素对水稻单产的影响存在明显差异。温度对水稻单产具有显著的促进作用,且两者间存在显著的倒“U”关系,降水对水稻单产的影响并不显著,而高温热害对水稻单产具有显著的负向影响。另外,机械、劳动等要素投入与农田水利等基础设施建设能够显著提高水稻单产。因此,加强对湖北省气象因素的预警及预报,改善农田水利设施、优化播种期、选择适宜品种等方式对于提高水稻单产具有重要意义。
Climatic conditions such as temperature, precipitation and high temperature heat are closely related to rice production. Based on 2 610 sample data and meteorological data of Hubei farmers in 2003-2011, based on the investigation of temporal and spatial variation characteristics of high temperature and heat damage in rice growing period in Hubei Province, a layered model of rice yield and its influencing factors was established. The effects of climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation and extreme high temperature on rice yield in Hubei were discussed. The nonlinear effects of temperature and precipitation on rice yield were tested. The study found that the heat damage in Hubei Province showed obvious temporal and spatial changes. From 2003 to 2011, the high-temperature heat hazard in Hubei Province showed the trend of decreasing firstly and then increasing with the fluctuation of “V”. Spatially, high-temperature heat damage is more severe in Hubei and eastern Hubei, while western Hubei and Jianghan Plain are relatively lighter. On the other hand, there are significant differences in the impact of climatic factors on rice yield. Temperature had a significant role in promoting rice yield, and there was a significant reciprocal “U” relationship between them. Precipitation had no significant effect on rice yield, while high temperature damage had a significant negative impact on rice yield. In addition, the input of machinery, labor and other infrastructure and construction of irrigation and water conservancy facilities can significantly increase rice yields. Therefore, strengthening the early warning and forecast of meteorological factors in Hubei Province, improving farmland water conservancy facilities, optimizing sowing date, selecting suitable varieties and so on are of great significance for improving rice yield.