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本文旨在检验财政支出乘数对于金融摩擦的非线性状态依赖特征以及政府消费乘数和政府投资乘数的差异性。研究结果表明,作为整体研究的财政支出只有在低金融摩擦环境中才能有效的刺激长期经济增长;然而,政府消费和政府投资的乘数效应显著不同,相比政府消费,政府投资对于经济增长的乘数效应更强烈,尤其是在高金融摩擦环境中。本文从政府投资的正外部性、财政支出的负财富效应以及金融摩擦的非线性影响三个方面,给出了实证结果的经济解释。政策启示方面,需要动态监测金融摩擦的状态变化,并适时调整财政支出政策。
The purpose of this paper is to examine the nonlinear state dependence of financial expenditure multipliers on financial frictions and the differences between the government consumption multipliers and the government investment multipliers. The results show that fiscal expenditures as a whole can effectively stimulate long-term economic growth only in a low financial friction environment. However, the multiplier effects of government consumption and government investment are significantly different. Compared with the government consumption, the government investment in economic growth The multiplier effect is more intense, especially in high financial friction environments. This paper gives the economic explanation of the empirical results from the three aspects of the positive externalities of government investment, the negative wealth effect of fiscal expenditure and the non-linear impact of financial friction. In terms of policy implications, we need to dynamically monitor the status changes of financial friction and adjust fiscal expenditure policies in a timely manner.