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对中国地方政府债务的担忧近期再次升温,与此密切相关的是对银行体系的健康程度以及经济能否承受房地产调控政策的担忧。我们的分析表明:(1)与普遍持有的观点相反,中国大部分的财政资源是由地方政府征收并且花费的,而中央政府拥有很有限的可自主安排支出的财政资源。全国范围内的土地出让收入平均为地方政府支出提供了30%的资金。(2)我们估计2010年年底地方政府负债总额约为GDP的30%,但近期不太可能出现债务危机,因为政府整体的债务水平仍然可控,并且拥有大量可处置的资产,同时中国的储蓄率
Concerns about the debt of China’s local government have risen again recently, closely related to the health of the banking system and concerns about whether the economy can withstand real estate regulation and control policies. Our analysis shows that: (1) Contrary to popular belief, most of China’s fiscal resources are collected and spent by local governments, which have very limited financial resources to make their own arrangements. On average, the revenue from land sales nationwide has provided 30% of the funds for local government spending. (2) We estimate that the total local government debt will be about 30% of GDP by the end of 2010, but the debt crisis is unlikely to occur in the near future as the government’s overall debt level is still manageable and has a large amount of disposable assets. Meanwhile, China’s savings rate