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为及时制订有关油轮运价指数波动的应对策略和规避相关海运风险,运用灰色关联理论对原油海运贸易量、油轮船队规模、原油价格及原油产量与油轮运价指数之间的关联度以及近期波罗的海油轮运价指数和前两个月的布伦特现货原油离岸价格之间的相关性进行研究.结果表明:四者与油轮运价指数之间的关联程度由高到低依次为油轮船队规模、原油海运贸易量、原油产量、原油价格;近期油轮运价指数波动滞后原油价格波动约3周左右.
In order to promptly formulate strategies for the fluctuation of the freight index and avoid the related maritime risks, the paper uses gray relational theory to analyze the correlation between the trade volume of crude oil and seaborne, the size of the tanker fleet, the crude oil price, the crude oil output and the freight index of freight tankers, The correlation between the Baltic Freight Index and the previous two months’ Brent crude oil offshore price was studied.The results showed that the correlation between the four indices and the Freight Index was from high to low in the order of tanker Team size, crude oil seaborne trade volume, crude oil production, crude oil price; the recent fluctuations in the index of oil tanker lag crude oil prices fluctuate about 3 weeks.