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土地利用/覆被变化对水文过程与水资源利用具有重要影响,是流域生态系统产水功能的驱动力之一.以山东省南四湖流域为研究对象,分析1990—2013年土地利用变化,运用CLUE-S模型预测未来土地利用变化趋势,并基于土地利用变化格局,采用InVEST模型的产水模块和空间制图探讨了近25年、未来城市化增长情景以及流域生态保护管理情景下土地利用变化对产水功能的影响.结果表明:近25年来,随着南四湖流域城市化进程的加快,城市建设用地增加3.5%,耕地面积减少2.4%,城市用地的增加主要来源于耕地转换;InVEST模型模拟显示,城市建设用地的增加会促进产水,由此引起产水功能在过去25年中先降低后升高,2013年最高达到232.1 mm;CLUE-S模型模拟预测现状增长情景下土地利用变化,按照城市化快速发展的速度,城市建设用地将增加6.7%,由此导致2030年产水量显著增长,流域洪水风险亦会相应升高;湖区周围300 m缓冲区实施退耕还林情景模拟表明,这一生态措施会明显降低流域产水量,较2013年减少1.2%.
Land use / cover change has an important influence on hydrological process and water resource utilization, which is one of the driving forces of basin water production function.With Nansi Lake basin in Shandong Province as the research object, this paper analyzes the land use change in 1990-2013, Using the CLUE-S model to predict the future trend of land use change, and based on the land use change pattern, using the water production module and spatial mapping of InVEST model, this paper discusses the changes of land use under the scenarios of urbanization growth in the future and urban ecological protection in the past 25 years The results show that with the acceleration of urbanization in Nansi Lake Basin in the recent 25 years, the urban construction land increased by 3.5% and the cultivated land area decreased by 2.4%. The increase of urban land mainly came from the conversion of cultivated land. InVEST Model simulations show that the increase of urban construction land will promote water production, which will cause the water production function to decrease first and then increase in the past 25 years, reaching a maximum of 232.1 mm in 2013. CLUE-S model predicts land use under the current situation of growth According to the rapid development of urbanization, the urban construction land will increase by 6.7%, resulting in a significant increase in water production in 2030. The risk of flood in the watershed The corresponding simulation results show that the simulation of the conversion of cropland to forest in the 300-m buffer zone around the lake shows that this ecological measure will significantly reduce the water production in the basin, a decrease of 1.2% over 2013.