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利用1995年~2014年石油工业上中游投资数据对石油工业上中游投资进行协整分析,发现石油工业上游投资和中游投资之间存在长期的正向均衡关系,误差修正模型的结果表明石油工业上游投资既受到石油工业中游投资的推动作用,又受到其制约作用,因此在石油工业投资决策中,应该对石油工业上中游的投资规模进行合理配置,以充分发挥石油工业中游投资对上游投资的促进作用,实现整体投资效果的最优。
Based on the co-integration analysis of the investment in the upper and middle reaches of the petroleum industry from 1995 to 2014, we find that there is a long-term positive equilibrium relationship between the upstream and downstream investment in the oil industry. The results of the error correction model show that upstream of the petroleum industry Therefore, in the investment decision-making of petroleum industry, the investment scale of the upper and middle reaches of the petroleum industry should be rationally allocated so as to give full play to the promotion of upstream investment in the middle reaches of petroleum industry Effect, to achieve the best overall investment effect.