针对稻纵卷叶螟主害代测报难的问题， 通过对古田县１０ ａ 虫情资料和气象资料进行回归分析， 指出： 古田县稻纵卷叶螟主害代——第三 （２） 代的螟蛾迁入量与６ 月上、中旬雨日之和及降雨量之和呈正相关关系； 蛾迁入后的１～２ 龄幼虫存活率与蚁螟盛孵高峰期的降雨强度呈负相关关系。将这种相关关系应用于测报， 可提高稻纵卷叶螟的预报准确率。 According to the regression analysis of the 10-year-old insect and meteorological data in Gutian County, the authors pointed out that the main damage generation of the rice leaf roller - the third (2) And the sum of rainy days in the middle of June and the sum of rainfall showed a positive correlation. The survival rates of larvae 1 to 2 years after immigration of moths were negatively correlated with the rainfall intensities at the peak of hatching of insects relationship. Applying this correlation to forecasting can improve the prediction accuracy of the rice leaf roller.