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介绍了水氡变化率的物理含义以及变化率动态图象的生成方法。强震前在动态图象上存在着变化率≥0.06 高值异常区;异常区中心的最大变化率随时间有规律地演化,且与发震时间有着良好的统计关系。据此提出4 个时间预测指标。检验性预测结果表明,预测的发震时间段长短大多数为2 至6 个月,可满足强震的中短期预报尺度的需要。
The physical meaning of the rate of change of water radon and the method of generating the rate of change dynamic image are introduced. Before the strong earthquakes there exists anomalous region with a rate of change of ≥0.06 high on the dynamic image. The maximum rate of change of the center of the anomalous region evolves regularly with time and has a good statistical relationship with the time of seismogenic events. Accordingly, four time prediction indexes are proposed. The test results show that the forecast period of earthquake onset is mostly 2 to 6 months, which can meet the needs of short-term and long-term prediction of strong earthquakes.