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2012年9月,高盛公司发表了一份名为《一个行业的衰退与重振》的研究报告,显示近年来油气行业的盈亏平衡油价不断提高,整个行业对于高油价的依赖越来越大,而且在高油价背景下,油气行业的现金流和投资回报率不增反降。现有遗产型资产质量不断恶化是导致整个油气行业盈利能力下降的主要原因。面对现有遗产型资产质量不断恶化的困境,油气公司不断加大投资力度,过去十年油气行业的投资呈指数增长,投资改善了行业的储量替代状况及未来增长前景,但也导致行业成本居高不下。寻找并建立新一代遗产型资产是推动未来增长的关键,其中超深水为最具投资价值的领域。北美油气勘探生产公司和以巴西国家石油公司为主的拉美公司,通过改善和创新技术,在勘探和页岩油气领域取得成功,使其在未来增长中占据优势。
In September 2012, Goldman Sachs issued a study titled “The Recession and Revitalization of an Industry,” which shows that the breakeven oil prices of the oil and gas industry have been continuously rising in recent years, and the entire industry has become increasingly dependent on high oil prices. And in the context of high oil prices, the oil and gas industry’s cash flow and return on investment do not increase and decrease. The deterioration of the quality of existing legacy assets is the main reason for the drop in profitability of the entire oil and gas industry. Faced with the deteriorating existing asset quality of heritage-based assets, oil and gas companies are constantly investing heavily in the oil and gas industry in the past 10 years, with an exponential growth in investment. Investments have improved the sector’s reserve replacement and future growth prospects, but also led to industry costs High. Finding and building a new generation of heritage-based assets is key to driving future growth, with ultra-deep water as the most valuable investment. North American oil and gas exploration and production companies and Latin American companies dominated by Petrobras have succeeded in the exploration and shale oil and gas sectors by improving and innovating technologies that will give them an edge in future growth.