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为应对复杂环境下的不确定性因素对项目净现值产生的不利影响,本文提出现金流关键度(CFC)分散缓冲法,在现金流惩罚因子较大的活动前设置时间缓冲,实现由于活动延迟给项目净现值造成的损失最小化,并保证项目现金流支付尽可能按原计划执行.为验证该方法的有效性和可行性,在相同约束条件下,将之与Max-npv非鲁棒性优化模型进行对比分析.仿真实验结果表明,在低、中、高三种不确定性程度下,CFC分散缓冲法不仅在净现值相关绩效指标上有更优的结果,而且具有较好的鲁棒性.
In order to cope with the adverse impact of uncertainties on the net present value of the project in a complex environment, this paper proposes a cash flow criticality (CFC) decentralized buffering method that sets a time buffer before the activity with a large cash flow penalty factor. Delays minimize the loss to the project’s net present value, and ensure that the cash flow payment of the project is performed as far as possible. In order to verify the validity and feasibility of the method, the Max-npv is non-existent under the same constraints. The comparative analysis of the model with excellent performance. The simulation results show that under the three levels of uncertainty of low, medium and high levels, the CFC decentralized buffering method not only has better results in the NPV-related performance indicators, but also has better results. Robustness.