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目的通过流感监测系统数据和新增学校症状监测系统的一致性分析,从而了解深圳市龙岗区多种监测模式结合运用的效果。方法通过深圳市流感监测系统收集2011-2014年数据,从系统的代表性、稳定性、真实性以及时效性等属性评价深圳市龙岗区现有流感监测系统的预警作用。结果流感监测哨点覆盖全区34.30%的服务人口,监测系统数据具有一定的代表性,用流感样病例就诊百分比(ILI%)较前5周均值上升5%这个指标评价系统的灵敏性和特异性,其特异度、阳性预测值、阴性预测值最高,分别为91.43%、62.50%、72.73%,但灵敏度仅有29.71%。学生健康信息监测系统与疾病控制信息管理系统提前1周报告的ILI%亦相关(r=0.45,P<0.05)。结论龙岗区流感监测系统具有一定的代表性,监测数据可靠、稳定性好,但监测系统的灵敏性有待提高。
Objective To understand the combined effect of multiple monitoring modes in Longgang District of Shenzhen through the consistency analysis of flu surveillance system data and new school symptom monitoring system. Methods The data of 2011-2014 collected by Shenzhen Influenza Surveillance System were used to evaluate the early warning effect of the existing influenza surveillance system in Longgang District of Shenzhen based on the representativeness, stability, authenticity and timeliness of the system. Results The influenza surveillance sentinel covered 34.30% of the service population in the whole district. The data of the monitoring system were representative. The sensitivity and specificity of the system were evaluated using the indicator that the percentages of flu-like cases (ILI%) increased by 5% The specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 91.43%, 62.50% and 72.73% respectively, but the sensitivity was only 29.71%. Student health information monitoring system and disease control information management system 1 week earlier ILI% reported (r = 0.45, P <0.05). Conclusion The influenza surveillance system in Longgang District has some representativeness, the monitoring data is reliable and the stability is good, but the sensitivity of the monitoring system needs to be improved.