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基于观测数据分析了宁夏固原地区平均温度和降水的年际变化,探讨了气候变化对当地胡麻发育进程和产量的影响状况.结果表明:1957—2012年,固原地区年均气温呈上升趋势,年降水量呈下降趋势,气候倾向率分别为0.3℃·(10 a)-1、-20 mm·(10 a)-1;胡麻生长季平均温度的上升趋势更明显,降水的下降趋势则与年趋势类似.气温升高和降水减少加快了胡麻的发育速度,导致其生育期天数呈显著减少趋势.胡麻播种至出苗期温度每上升1℃,出苗期提前0.7 d;出苗至二对针叶期,温度每上升1℃,发育天数缩短0.8 d,降水量每减少1 mm,发育天数缩短0.1 d;工艺成熟至成熟期温度每上升1℃,成熟期提前1.8 d,降水量每减少1 mm,成熟期提前0.1 d.胡麻营养生长阶段平均温度升高、降水减少使发育加速是胡麻产量逐年降低的主要原因之一;生殖生长阶段温度升高会抑制花芽分化及正常授粉,对蒴果数和结实率产生影响而导致产量降低.调整胡麻品种种植布局、扩大中晚熟或晚熟品种比例是当地减少气候变化影响的重要措施.
Based on the observation data, we analyzed the interannual variation of average temperature and precipitation in Guyuan area of Ningxia, and discussed the influence of climate change on the development process and yield of flax. The results show that the average annual temperature of Guyuan area is on the rise from 1957 to 2012, Precipitation decreased with the trend of 0.3 ℃ · (10 a) -1, -20 mm · (10 a) -1 respectively. The increasing trend of average temperature of flax during the growing season was more obvious, The trend is similar.High temperature and decreased precipitation accelerated the development of flax, resulting in a significant reduction in the number of days of growth.The flaxseed to the emergence of each temperature rise 1 ℃, seedling emergence 0.7 d ahead of time; emergence to two pairs of needles , The temperature was increased by 1 ℃ every 1 ℃, the days of development shortened by 0.8 d, and the number of days of development decreased by 0.1 d for every 1 mm of decrease in precipitation. The temperatures increased by 1 ℃ from maturity to maturity, 1.8 d in maturity and 1 mm in precipitation, Mature 0.1D ahead of schedule. The average temperature of flax during vegetative growth stage was increased. The decrease of precipitation led to the decrease of flax yield one of the main reasons. The increase of reproductive growth temperature inhibited flower bud differentiation and normal pollination, And seed setting rate, which will lead to the decrease of output.Adjusting the planting layout of flax varieties and increasing the proportion of late-maturing or late-maturing varieties are important measures to reduce the impact of climate change locally.