今年以来,我国违约债券数量达29只,涉及金额约为213亿元,违约主体从民营企业扩散至央企和国企。有观点认为,债券违约率的增加表明了市场信用风险提升。本文运用DTS指标对近期我国信用风险状况进行了考察,并结合金融危机以来我国债券市场的走势,对未来我国债券市场信用风险可能的变化进行了分析。 Since the beginning of this year, the number of default bonds in China reached 29, involving an amount of about 21.3 billion yuan. The main body of default expanded from private enterprises to state-owned enterprises and state-owned enterprises. Some people think that the increase in the default rate of bonds shows that the market credit risk is rising. This article uses the DTS index to examine the recent credit risk in our country. Combined with the trend of the bond market in our country since the financial crisis, this paper analyzes the possible changes in the credit risk of the bond market in China in the future.