一般而论,当经济运行处于货币扩张周期时,周期类行业收益率将大幅上升;当经济运行处于紧缩政策实施阶段,防守型行业收益率将比较稳定。但对上游行业也要区别对待,事实上这一轮经济过热的主要特征,还不是通货膨胀,而是瓶颈现象,“煤电油运”瓶颈行业仍可值得重点关注。 In general, when the economy is in a cycle of monetary expansion, the cycle rate of return of the industry will rise sharply. When the economy is in the stage of implementation of the tightening policy, the rate of return of the defensive sector will be relatively stable. However, the upstream industries should also be treated differently. In fact, the main feature of this round of overheating is not inflation but a bottleneck. The bottleneck industry of “coal, electricity, oil transport” can still be worth noting.