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本文首先分析了中国与中亚国家区域经济一体化及中国对中亚国家直接投资与双边贸易的发展现状;其次,基于成员国相对价格变动幅度评估模型,测算了上合组织的区域经济一体化程度;最后,利用相关数据,实证分析了中国对中亚国家直接投资与双边贸易对上合组织区域经济一体化的作用差异。结果显示,2001年至今,除个别年份外,上合组织的区域经济一体化程度总体上取得了不断提高;中国对中亚国家的直接投资,对上合组织区域经济一体化进程有推动作用,但这种作用不仅与双边贸易相比有差别,而且在不同中亚国家也有所差异。因此,中国在不同中亚国家的经济合作方式选择应该各有侧重。
This paper first analyzes the regional economic integration between China and Central Asian countries and the development of China’s direct investment in Central Asian countries and bilateral trade. Secondly, based on the assessment model of relative price changes in member countries, the author estimates the regional economic integration of the SCO Finally, using the relevant data, this paper empirically analyzes the difference between China’s direct investment in Central Asian countries and bilateral trade on the SCO regional economic integration. The results show that since 2001, except for a few years, the degree of regional economic integration of the SCO has been continuously improved. China’s direct investment in Central Asian countries has played a catalytic role in the process of SCO’s regional economic integration. However, this role is not only different from that of bilateral trade, but also differs among different Central Asian countries. Therefore, the choice of China’s mode of economic cooperation in different Central Asian countries should be emphasized.