本文在综述国内外社会监测与预警指标研究基础上,提出对社会运行状态进行预警的强警戒性指标。其中,客观预警指标由10个一级指标和40个二级指标组成;主观预警指标由社会综合预警、组织预警、居民预警三个一级指标和30个二级指标组成。文章还采用世界通行标准法、国内文献综述法、极值—均值法、专家经验判断法、综合分析法、类推法等多种方法,划分了客观预警指标的预警评判标准;采用Likert五级量表划分主观预警指标的评判标准。 Based on the review of the research on social monitoring and early warning indicators at home and abroad, this paper proposes a strong cautionary indicator of early warning of social operating conditions. Among them, the objective early warning indicator consists of 10 first-level indicators and 40 second-level indicators. The subjective early warning indicator consists of three primary indicators of social comprehensive early warning, organization early warning and residential warning and 30 second-level indicators. The article also uses the methods of world prevailing standard method, domestic literature review method, extremum-mean value method, expert experience judgment method, comprehensive analysis method and analogy method to classify the early warning evaluation criteria of objective early-warning index. Table division subjective early warning indicators of the criteria.