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目前 ,德国国内主要预测机构对 2 0 0 1年德经济前景表示谨慎乐观 ,多数预测今年经济增长在 2 .4 %— 2 .8%之间 ,低于去年的增幅 (3.1% )。德预测部门之所以持谨慎乐观主要在于德仍存在若干影响其发展前景的不利因素和未知变数。文章认为德国在增长结构和宏观总量指标等方面仍存在某些短期内难以消除的问题 :如信息网络经济在短期内还不能超过传统工业而上升为增长主体 ;消费和投资难以出现快速增长 ;今年油价和资本市场仍存在某些不可测变数等 ,这些都将成为影响德国今年经济走势变化的不可忽视的条件
At present, the major forecast agencies in Germany are cautiously optimistic about the economic outlook for Germany in 2001, with most predicting that economic growth will be between 2.4% and 2.8% this year, down from last year’s increase of 3.1%. The reason for the cautious optimism of the German forecasting department lies mainly in the fact that Germany still has some unfavorable factors and unknown variables that affect its development prospects. The article holds that Germany still has some problems that are difficult to be eliminated in the short term in terms of its growth structure and macroeconomic indicators. For example, the information network economy can not surpass the traditional industry in the short term and rise to the main body of growth; consumption and investment are hardly able to achieve rapid growth; This year there will still be some unpredictable changes in oil prices and capital markets, all of which will become undeniable conditions that will affect the economic changes in Germany this year