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1998年 ,以扩大投资为重点的扩大内需政策对促进我省经济增长起到积极作用 ,但今年以来扩大投资的政策未能继续取得预期效果 ,投资对经济增长的拉动效应明显减弱 ,经济增长出现了“启而不动”的迹象。为什么过去我们长期惯用并行之有效的扩大投资拉动经济增长的政策没有取得预期效果 ?经济增长的主要驱动因素是投资需求还是消费需求 ?我省下一步扩大内需的政策取向如何 ?文章通过对我省近十几年来经济增长的需求因素贡献率实证分析与国际经验的比较 ,得出结论 :拉动我省经济增长的主导因素是消费需求 ,而不是投资需求 ,单靠投资需求拉动的经济增长是不可能持久的。
In 1998, the policy of expanding domestic demand focused on expanding investment played a positive role in promoting the economic growth of our province. However, the policy of expanding investment this year failed to continue to have the desired effect. The pulling effect of investment on economic growth was apparently weakened and economic growth emerged The “Kai move” sign. Why in the past our long-standing and effective extension of investment-led economic growth policy did not achieve the desired results? The main driver of economic growth is the investment demand or consumer demand? My province to further expand domestic demand, the policy orientation? The empirical analysis of the contribution rate of demand for economic growth over the past decade and international comparison shows that: the dominant factor driving the economic growth of our province is consumer demand rather than investment demand, and the economic growth driven by investment demand alone is not May be lasting.