2016年一季度,世界经济温和复苏。美英等发达经济体经济复苏低于预期,欧盟和欧元区通缩压力增加,主要新兴经济体下行压力不减反增,巴西、俄罗斯经济陷入衰退,印度、越南等虽然增长较快但势头有所放缓。政策层面,美联储加息进程放缓,欧洲央行、日本央行宽松货币政策继续加码,特别是日本负利率政策震动全球,悲观情绪有所升温。以金砖国家为代表的新兴经济体财政政策走势分化,印度加大财政刺激政策的力度,巴西、俄罗斯和南非纷纷减支,以实现财政平衡。受美联储 In the first quarter of 2016, the world economy recovered gently. The economic recovery in the developed economies like the United States and the United Kingdom was lower than expected. The deflationary pressures in the EU and the euro zone increased. The downward pressure on the major emerging economies did not decrease but the economy in Brazil and Russia fell into a recession. India and Vietnam, though growing at a relatively fast pace, slow. Policy level, the Fed rate hike slowed down, the ECB, Bank of Japan easing monetary policy continued to be overweight, especially the negative impact of Japan’s global policy, the global pessimism has risen. The emerging economies represented by the BRICS countries have witnessed the trend of fiscal policy diverging. India has stepped up its fiscal stimulus policies. Brazil, Russia and South Africa have successively reduced their expenditures in order to achieve fiscal balance. By the Federal Reserve