论文部分内容阅读
为了解决目前对行程时间可靠度的研究几乎都是从道路管理者角度出发的问题,考虑路网随机变化对道路使用者的影响,首先从道路使用者的角度以及行程时间分布的2个维度提出了动态行程时间可靠度的概念,进而分析了其时空变化特性。其次基于日变可靠度并假设行程时间及其规定阈值服从正态分布,根据其概率密度分布函数分析了可靠度影响因素,并提出了行程时间可靠度指标。然后运用该指标推算出了路段和路径行程时间可靠度,计算并分析了路网动态行程时间可靠度。最后在一个测试路网上采用3种方法分别计算了路径行程时间可靠度。结果表明,传统计算方法存在缺陷,而提出的可靠度指标法与Monte Carlo法的结果基本相同,也因此验证了该方法的正确性。
In order to solve the problem of the reliability of travel time, almost all the researches from the perspectives of road managers and considering the influence of random changes of road network on road users are first proposed from the perspective of road users and the distribution of travel time The concept of dynamic travel time reliability, and then analyzes its temporal and spatial variation characteristics. Secondly, based on the diurnal reliability and assuming that the travel time and its threshold value are normal distribution, the reliability influencing factors are analyzed according to their probability density distribution function, and the reliability index of travel time is proposed. Then, using the index, the reliability of the travel time of the road section and the route is deduced, and the reliability of the dynamic travel time of the road network is calculated and analyzed. Finally, three methods were used to calculate the path travel time reliability in a test road network respectively. The results show that the traditional method has some defects, and the proposed reliability index method is basically the same as Monte Carlo method. Therefore, the correctness of the method is verified.