分析了青藏铁路中多种不利因素对轨道电路参数的影响 ;提出了在青藏铁路不宜采用现行基于轨道电路的列车运行控制系统 ,而应选择基于通信的列车运行控制系统的理由 ;给出了系统的基本结构及提高系统可靠性的措施 ;与此同时 ,就人们关心的无线传输列车控制数据的可靠性和安全性难题 ,通过建立马尔可夫模型的方法进行了分析 This paper analyzes the influence of various unfavorable factors in the Qinghai-Tibet railway on the parameters of the track circuit and proposes that it is not appropriate to adopt the existing train operation control system based on the track circuit in the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, but also to choose the reason of the train operation control system based on the communication. The basic structure and measures to improve the reliability of the system. At the same time, the reliability and safety of the wireless transmission train control data that people are concerned about are analyzed, and the method of establishing the Markov model is analyzed