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本文选用中国1978～2007年30年的数据,基于VAR模型运用Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应分析、方差分解等方法分析投资、就业与经济增长三者之间的关系。实证结果表明:经济增长既是就业的格兰杰原因,也是投资的格兰杰原因;投资是就业的格兰杰原因;就业和经济增长均不是投资的格兰杰原因。投资可以促进就业和经济增长,经济增长也可以促进就业。
This paper selects the data from 1978 to 2007 in China for 30 years. Based on VAR model, we use Granger causality test, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition to analyze the relationship between investment, employment and economic growth. The empirical results show that economic growth is not only the Granger cause of employment, but also the Granger reason of investment. Investment is the Granger cause of employment. Employment and economic growth are not the Granger causes of investment. Investment can promote employment and economic growth, and economic growth can also promote employment.