和平、稳定促进了东亚经济的快速崛起,但贫富不均和潜在的冲突可能会破坏经济的平稳增长。许多全球趋势分析存在的硬伤是,往往会想当然地认为我们所熟悉的社会的发展形态会复制到其他地方。在对其他社会的命运做结论时,我们往往会表现得乐观,并关注好消息。身在新加坡,我们为大肆宣扬亚洲崛起和权力从西方转移到东方的说法而着迷。遭到忽视的一点是,亚洲的崛起是在和平与政治相对稳定的时代出现的。 Peace and stability have promoted the rapid rise of the economy in East Asia. However, inequalities and potential conflicts between the rich and the poor may undermine the steady growth of the economy. Many flaws in global trend analysis are those that tend to be taken for granted that the patterns of society in which we are familiar are copied elsewhere. In conclusion to the fate of other societies, we tend to be optimistic and follow the good news. In Singapore, we are fascinated by the claims of the rise of Asia and the transfer of power from the West to the East. What is overlooked is that the rise of Asia has come in an era of relative stability in peace and politics.