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直接来自权威机构的预测报告显示:今年我国钢材供需缺口将比去年减少600多万吨;明年钢材市场进一步处于稳定,缺口递减。而到1997年前后则会出现大幅度反弹。根据对国家宏观调控政策的预期分析,和对我国宏观经济波动规律的判断.以及对我国宏观经济潜在运行能力及实际经济对潜在运行能力偏离的分析.通过总结我国历史上历次经济循环规律,有关部门预测目前我国经济周期收缩期将在1995年12月达谷底。1996年开始新的一轮扩张,大约在1998年下半年达到景气高峰。而我国钢材消费量的波动与国民经济基建投资波动密切相关。基本建设投资膨胀引起钢材消费膨胀;同样,基建规模收缩也引起钢材消费量的下降。
Prediction reports directly from authoritative agencies show that the gap between supply and demand of China’s steel products will be reduced by over 6 million tons this year. The market for steel products will be further stabilized and the gap will decline gradually next year. By 1997 there will be a substantial rebound. Based on the expected analysis of the national macro-control policies and the judgment of the macroeconomic fluctuations of our country, as well as the analysis of the potential operational capacity of the macroeconomy in our country and the deviations of the actual economy from the potential operating capacity, by summarizing the historical economic cycles in our country, Department forecasts At present, China’s economic cycle contraction will reach the bottom in December 1995. A new round of expansion began in 1996, reaching its peak in about the second half of 1998. However, the fluctuation of steel consumption in our country is closely related to the fluctuation of investment in infrastructure of national economy. Inflation in capital construction has caused steel consumption to soar; similarly, shrinking infrastructure has also caused a drop in steel consumption.