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2013年初环保部便提出要在2030年前使全国所有城市的PM2.5降低至35微克/立方米。而时值北京携手张家口申办冬奥会成功,过多的运用行政手段治理环境只能起到短暂的效果,正如“奥运蓝”“APEC蓝”一样昙花一现。通过量化分析我们发现,在当前治理政策稳步推行的前提下,提高公共交通比例、推行排污许可证拍卖制度、大力推进河北在京津冀一体化进程中交通中心的构建,就很有可能在2022年将京冀地区PM2.5年均值降低至40(毫克/立方米)左右,将极大的缩小了为实现“冬奥蓝”所需付出的经济损失。
In early 2013, the MEP proposed to reduce PM2.5 in all cities in the country to 35 μg / m3 by 2030. The time Beijing Zhangjiakou bid to host the Olympic Winter Games success, too much use of administrative measures to manage the environment can only play a transient effect, just as “Olympic Blue ” “APEC Blue ” as short-lived. Through the quantitative analysis, we found that under the premise of the steady implementation of the current governance policies, it is very likely that in 2022, the proportion of public transport will be increased, the auction system of emission permits will be implemented, and the transport center of Hebei in the process of integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei will be vigorously promoted. The average annual PM2.5 in Jing-Ji area will be as little as about 40 (milligram per cubic meter) in recent years, which will greatly reduce the economic losses needed to achieve “Winter Olympics.”