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为提高航空安全,降低民用飞机运行过程中的故障风险水平,分别建立了单机风险和机队风险计算方法,指出单机风险计算的关键是确定部件故障分布及故障率,威布尔分布很好地描述了部件故障分布情况。针对部件故障机理,给出了部件故障的未检出概率、部件故障后果的条件概率及相应严重性后果,判定风险水平能否接受;机队故障风险在已知单机风险的基础上,取决于机队规模和当前飞行循环水平。基于机队运行数据预测故障飞机数量,获得不同参数分布、故障飞机数量和退役寿命下的机队风险水平。以某型发动机涡轮盘榫齿裂纹为例,通过蒙特卡罗方法,模拟单机及机队部件产生故障的时间,分析部件故障引起的单机风险水平和机队风险水平,基于运行数据给出民用飞机单机和机队在持续适航阶段的风险水平。
In order to improve aviation safety and reduce the level of failure risk during the operation of civil aircraft, a single machine risk and fleet risk calculation method are respectively established. The key point of single machine risk calculation is to determine the fault distribution and failure rate of parts. Weibull distribution is well described Part failure distribution. Aiming at the mechanism of component failure, the probability of failure of component is detected, the conditional probability of failure of component and the corresponding consequence of severity are given to determine whether the risk level can be accepted. The risk of fleet failure is based on the known stand-alone risk, Fleet size and current flight cycle level. Predict the number of failed aircraft based on fleet operational data, obtain different parameter distributions, number of aircraft in flight and fleet risk level under decommissioning life. Taking the crack of a certain type of engine turbine disk as an example, the failure time of single and fleet components was simulated by Monte Carlo method. The risk of stand-alone and fleet risks caused by component failure was analyzed. The civil aircraft was given based on the operational data Stand-alone and fleet in the airworthiness stage of the continuous level of risk.