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油价大幅上涨,这是一个非常不好的信号。我们过去担心的全球性“滞胀”似乎正在像我们逼近。今天,日本野村控股发布预测说:原油价格有可能大幅攀升至每桶220美元。什么概念?德意志银行分析指出,如果原油价格进一步上涨10美元(即每桶105美元左右),那么美国经济的增长速度将在未来两年时间里减少0.5个百分点。美国尚且如此,更何况其他国家。尤其是欧元区核心国家德国和新兴经济体,基于其产业结构通常以制造业为主,对石油的依赖更加
The sharp rise in oil prices is a very bad sign. The global “stagflation” we used to worry about seems to be approaching us. Today, Nomura Holdings Japan released a forecast that crude oil prices could rise sharply to 220 US dollars a barrel. What is the concept? Deutsche Bank analysis pointed out that if the crude oil prices further up 10 US dollars (about 105 US dollars a barrel), then the United States economic growth rate in the next two years will be reduced by 0.5 percentage points. The United States is still the case, not to mention other countries. In particular, the core euro zone countries, Germany and emerging economies, because of their industrial structure is usually dominated by manufacturing, more dependent on oil