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为分析1949～2009年间中国经济体制改革及改革开放以来中国经济增长的态势及其路径演进,明确当下中国经济处于何种增长区间,以及下一阶段经济增长的可持续性问题,构建了改革演进的理论框架,将新中国成立以来的经济增长路径分为4个阶段。以新古典经济增长模型为基础,通过放宽限制条件,构建计量经济模型拟合中国经济的增长路径。以“整体推进”阶段的实证数据检验模型的正确性并得出结论:中国的经济增长尚处于经济起飞阶段;下一阶段仍将维持经济的高位增长,具有可持续性。
In order to analyze the trend and path of China’s economic growth since China’s economic reform and reform and opening up from 1949 to 2009, and to clarify the current growth range of China’s economy and the sustainability of economic growth in the next stage, The theoretical framework, the path of economic growth since the founding of new China is divided into four stages. Based on the neoclassical economic growth model, by easing the restrictions, a econometric model is constructed to fit the growth path of China’s economy. The paper verifies the correctness of the model with the empirical data from the stage of “overall advancement” and concludes that China’s economic growth is still in the stage of economic take-off; the next stage will maintain the high growth of the economy and be sustainable.