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油价的飞飙考验着中国经济,加剧恶化了中国原本就令人堪忧的能源安全形势。剖析世界油价形成机制以及准确预测油价走势,是企业和政府进行战略决策的前提条件。本文在深入分析主要石油输出国的决策过程的基础上指出,供求双方的博弈中,世界主要石油输出国拥有相当的话语权。不管短期还是长期内,石油输出国都有驱动油价上升动机,但短期内这种动机将更加强烈。
The soaring oil prices test China’s economy and aggravate the deteriorating energy security situation in China. Analysis of the world oil price formation mechanism and accurately forecast the trend of oil prices are the preconditions for enterprises and governments to make strategic decisions. On the basis of deeply analyzing the decision-making process of major oil-exporting countries, this paper points out that in the game between supply and demand, the world’s major oil-exporting countries have a considerable right to speak. Whether in the short or long term, oil-exporting countries have the motivation to drive oil prices, but in the short term this motivation will be even greater.